Wonder what you would find if you frisked the latest Rasmussen poll on the Massachusetts special senate election?
Answer: Scott Brown (R) might have a chance.
There’s some good news today, because the latest Rasmussen Reports gives conservatives and Republicans a little hope in Massachusetts:
State Attorney General Martha Coakley holds a nine-point lead over her Republican rival, state Senator Scott Brown, in Massachusetts’ special U.S. Senate election to fill the seat of the late Edward M. Kennedy.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state finds Coakley ahead of Brown 50% to 41%. One percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.
The special Senate election will be held on January 19 and special elections typically feature low turnout. That’s one reason the race appears to be a bit closer than might typically be expected for a Senate race in Massachusetts. Kennedy carried 69% of the vote when he was reelected in 2006.
Both candidates get better than 70% of the vote from members of their respective parties, but Brown leads 65% to 21% among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties. In Massachusetts, however, Democrats vastly outnumber Republicans and it is very difficult for the GOP to compete except in special circumstances. Eight percent (8%) of Democrats remain undecided while just 3% of Republicans are in that category.
Special elections are typically decided by who shows up to vote and it is clear from the data that Brown’s supporters are more enthusiastic. In fact, among those who are absolutely certain they will vote, Brown pulls to within two points of Coakley. That suggests a very low turnout will help the Republican and a higher turnout is better for the Democrat.
I give state Senator Scott Brown (R) a lot of credit on this campaign. Without much help from the RNC or NRSC, he’s worked his tail off traveling the state of Massachusetts and gathering constituent’s support. Meanwhile, Democratic candidate Martha Coakley went on a 20 day vacation before the January 19th special election:
Where’s Martha? Why didn’t she put out a statement regarding the attempted terrorist attack by Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab? She is on vacation with 20 days to go until the election. Does Martha already need the rest or she just the most cocky candidate in the Commonwealth’s history?
Martha did make some time for a couple of campaign items such as refusing to debate Scott Brown one-on-one. During this election, she believes that every candidate has a right to be heard. That belief does not really cut it when Martha previously refused to debate her opponent in 2006.
A little cocky don’t you think!? Hopefully the enthusiasm for a conservative victory is largely underestimated in the state of Massachusetts, because it would be a great feat to frighten those Democrats and disrupt them from calling ‘shotty’ on Sen. Kennedy’s seat.
Donate to Scott Brown’s campaign by clicking here.
Senator John McCain (R-AZ) endorses Scott Brown:
*UPDATE* – January 5, 2009
CLICK HERE – Listen to Scott Brown’s interview on Laura Ingram’s radio show.