Wonder what you would find if you frisked the liberal state of New Jersey?
Answer: Democrat Jon Corzine’s support could be fading.
One day left until the big gubernatorial election in New Jersey and Virginia! Bob McDonnell still holds very strong in Virginia, while the Democratic candidate, Jon Corzine, seems to be slipping in New Jersey:
Chris Christie leads Jon Corzine 47-41 in PPP’s final poll of the New Jersey Governor’s race, with Chris Daggett at 11%.
Corzine had pulled to within a point of Christie on our poll three weeks ago after trailing by as many as 14 points over the summer, but his momentum has stalled since then and Christie’s built his lead back up to 4 points last week and now 6.
Christie’s advantage is due largely to his support from independents and because he has Republicans more unified around him than the Democrats are around Corzine. Christie leads Corzine 52-29 with indies, as Daggett’s support with that group has declined to 16%. Christie is getting 82% of Republicans to Corzine’s 72% of Democrats.
As the campaign concludes it seems like Daggett’s presence in the race has actually ended up hurting Corzine more than Christie, contrary to the earlier conventional wisdom. 45% of Daggett voters say the incumbent is their second choice to 36% for the challenger. Daggett’s backers report having voted for Barack Obama by a 67-23 margin last year.
Bad news for Mr. Corzine, but great news for Chris Christie and conservatives! Plus, I would not worry about the accuracy of the polls too much… I’m sure they’re on point:
Bear in mind that pollsters make a big effort to get the final polls before an election correct. They get judged on their accuracy based on the votes in the election, after all. A big miss makes them less credible than their competition, which means less business later. Sample problems suddenly disappear and biases get ironed out, although with PPP that has not been much of a problem anyway.
Reminder: I’m sure folks in New Jersey are sick and tired of paying enormous taxes brought on by Governor Corzine. It’s time to see a change in the liberal state of New Jersey. Constituents are voting with their feet so lookout political world… Are we about to see a shocker!?
Lets hope so.